Brexit: A Case Study in Diversification and Downside Protection
You probably know by now that Britain has voted to exit the European Union. We won’t offer detailed commentary on…
0One Factor to Rule Them All
Over the past few years there has been a loud and persistent chorus of complaints from market participants about the…
BOE Paper Signals Worrisome Outlook for Equities Post QE
In Market Commentary, Retail onWe don’t write very often on macroeconomic policy anymore, mostly because we are acutely aware of the complexity of economic…
Dalio: Credit Makes the World Go ‘Round
In Market Commentary, Retail onWe are awed and inspired by the simplicity with which Ray Dalio’s team at Bridgewater is able to convey complex…
Triumph of the Ostriches
Obviously the title of this post is a riff on the classic book, Triumph of the Optimists by Dimson, Marsh…
ECRI’s Indicators Confirm Recession ‘In Short Order’
While we deride forecasting for the purpose of investing, we understand that many people are curious about the state and…
Sky-High Bullish Sentiment Suggests Caution is Warranted
We have not yet tested these sentiment indicators for significance, but with stock market sentiment reflecting such extreme bullish confidence,…
Demographic Blues
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a fascinating piece of research on Monday relating U.S. stock market performance…
Paul Volcker Invalidates Modern Portfolio Theory
US Federal Reserve ex-Chairman Paul Volcker, whose policies under President Carter in the later 1970s and early 1980s single-handedly stuffed…
