Do Past Returns Predict Future Returns? Not Very Well – In the Short Term.
An article in this week’s Barron’s (subscription required) cites a study by Eaton Vance where they analyzed 10-year rolling returns…
0Market Update: July 23rd, 2010
In Market Commentary, Retail onThis is a quick update on markets and models. As you know, markets swooned in April, May and June, culminating…
Jekyll or Hyde Market
Readers will undoubtedly be familiar with Robert Louis Stevenson’s famous tale, The Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde.…
Quirky QWERTY
Parents will be familiar with the age-old question, ‘But why?’, repeated ad nauseum by children everywhere as they try to…
Expensive Markets Revisited
In Market Commentary, Retail onThe previous post demonstrated that stock valuations are expensive as measured by Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio. Stock valuations…
Why Now Is Not the Time for Buy and Hold
The most common question I get from clients is, ‘Is now a good time to invest in stocks?’ What clients…
Quantifying the Debt Drag
In Market Commentary, Retail onMost economists and analysts do a poor job of capturing the juxtaposition between normal cyclical recovery expectations and long-term headwinds…
Hussman: We face two possible states of the world.
In Market Commentary, Retail onJohn Hussman manages the eponymous Hussman Funds. Hussman was among the few who both forecast the 2008/2009 credit crisis, and…
Welcome to the Liquidity Surge
In Market Commentary, Retail onI’ve been trying to reconcile the apparent mixed signals in credit markets relative to stock markets in the past 2…
1930’s Redux
In Market Commentary onDavid Rosenberg quoted from a September 1930 Wall Street Journal editorial in this morning’s ‘Breakfast with Dave’. With Spiritus Animus…
