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  • Welcome to the Liquidity Surge

    I’ve been trying to reconcile the apparent mixed signals in credit markets relative to stock markets in the past 2 months. Inflation expectations implied by the 10-Year TIPS breakeven rate broke an intermediate-term downtrend on Monday, suggesting that investors are not overly concerned with deflation at the moment. However, a broken downtrend is not the same as an up-trend. 10-Year…

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  • 1930’s Redux

    David Rosenberg quoted from a September 1930 Wall Street Journal editorial in this morning’s ‘Breakfast with Dave’. With Spiritus Animus bubbling to the surface today, wise investors would be well served to keep things in perspective. The following piece should put even the most bullish data and comments in context: August 28, 1930: “There’s a large amount of money on…

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  • Low Quality Rally

    Many Advisors and fund managers have been complaining about how difficult it has been to beat their stock market benchmarks since the March 9th bottom. It turns out that, for active managers with a rigorous process for selecting the highest quality stocks, it has been quantifiably frustrating. This post will shed some light on this topic, to the delight of disciplined…

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  • The Statistics of Prediction

    Given the high level of ambiguity in the economy and markets at the moment (both gold and Treasuries rallying?), I thought it might be useful to revisit the concept of forecast error. Economic forecasters, even (perhaps especially?) the top, highest paid Wall Street celebrity economists, are egregiously poor predictors of stock market levels or direction over any meaningful time frame.…

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  • Macro Indicator Summary

    I am impressed with markets’ resilience in the face of China’s 6.7% sell-off overnight. Aside from Hong-Kong, global equity markets have shrugged-off the new Chinese bear market with a disinterested grunt. Here in Canada, banks are mostly higher on the day despite a 1.5% drop in the index, while the U.S. banking sector continues to consolidate sideways, off just 0.75%…

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  • Sirens in the Distance

    “The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers how to bribe the public with the public’s money.” –  Alexander Fraser Tytler “The hardest thing to explain is the glaringly evident which everybody has decided not to see.” – Ayn Rand Never in modern history has a voting majority confiscated so much from its children, by incurring so much…

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GestaltU is a forum for research, opinion pieces, and educational material from the team at ReSolve Asset Management. Our views are driven by evidence based finance, with a special focus on asset allocation; factors and smart beta; retirement and endowment strategies, and; quantitative methods.