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  • On Defined Benefit Pension Plans and the Social Contract

    Though modern examples of defined benefit pension plans offer a wealth of evidence contraindicating their effectiveness as long-term retirement solutions, the DB pension structure has many compelling features which recommend it as an excellent retirement option for large swathes of society. Unfortunately, when the troubled DB plans we read about in the news on a daily basis were originally conceived,…

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  • Expensive Markets Revisited

    The previous post demonstrated that stock valuations are expensive as measured by Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio. Stock valuations have been this expensive for only 25% of months going back to 1880, and expected returns from these levels are quite low by historical standards. This post will add further evidence to the valuation debate based on some complementary external…

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  • Why Now Is Not the Time for Buy and Hold

    The most common question I get from clients is, ‘Is now a good time to invest in stocks?’ What clients are really asking is, ‘If I invest now, will stocks take me where I want to go, on my timeline?’ Most advisors answer this question by referring to long-term average returns. Some reference the last 20 years, others the last…

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  • A Cure for Investor Depression

    The previous post hinted at a future piece on systematic trading. In this author’s humble opinion, well tested systematic investment strategies are the antidote to the poison of expert predictions. These strategies embrace the probabilistic nature of investment markets by applying hard and fast rules for investment decisions based on actual empirical evidence. In other words, these systems do not…

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  • Smash that Crystal Ball

    It’s that time of year again.   Yep, the time of year when the major Bay Street and Wall Street firms, along with the major mutual fund companies, parade their gaggle of economists and strategists in front of every camera, microphone and scribbling print journalist in order to emboss their firm’s logo on the impressionable minds of investors. Eventually, the…

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  • Mythbusters: Investor Edition

    Myth #2: You Will Get Rich by Heeding the Forecasts of Experts Among all forms of mistake, prophecy is the most gratuitous. – GEORGE ELIOT We have spent a great deal of time offering evidence that we are poor forecasters of the future. Disturbingly, it turns out that experts are no more prescient than the rest of us, even in…

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About Us

GestaltU is a forum for research, opinion pieces, and educational material from the team at ReSolve Asset Management. Our views are driven by evidence based finance, with a special focus on asset allocation; factors and smart beta; retirement and endowment strategies, and; quantitative methods.